Viewing archive of Sunday, 5 August 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Aug 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 217 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Aug 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. An M1/Sf flare occurred at
05/1531 UTC. Subflares in Regions 9557 (S21W51) and 9566 (N17E08)
occurred during the M-flare, contributing to the total X-ray flux of
the event. These Regions also produced several C-class flares during
the past day. Region 9563 (N23W07) produced C-class subflare
activity as well. All of these sunspot groups continued to grow. New
Regions 9569 (S18E10) and 9570 (S10E76) were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. M-class flares are possible in Regions 9557, 9563, and
9566.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled becoming active to minor
storm after 05/0600 UTC. The field was most disturbed from
05/0900-1200 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for the next 24 hours becoming
quiet to unsettled by the second day of the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Aug to 08 Aug
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Aug 156 Predicted 06 Aug-08 Aug 160/165/165 90 Day Mean 05 Aug 149
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Aug 007/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Aug 020/022 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Aug-08 Aug 015/015-015/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Aug to 08 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 02% | 02% | 02% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 02% | 02% | 02% |
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