Viewing archive of Friday, 29 December 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Dec 29 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 364 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Dec 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z Solar activity reached moderate levels. Region 9289
(S06E43) produced two M1/1f flares, at 29/0223Z and at 29/1848Z.
Both flares were accompanied by minor centimetric radio bursts. This
region appears slightly more complex than yesterday and still
contains white light areal coverage in excess of 700 millionths.
Region 9283 (S12W16) produced occasional low C-class flares, the
most important being a long duration C4/1f flare at 29/0211Z. New
Region 9291 (S13E34) emerged quite rapidly today in close proximity
to complex Region 9289.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
at low to moderate levels. Region 8289 has good potential for
M-class flares. Regions 9280 and 9283 may produce an isolated
low-level M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled with one active
period observed between 29/0300 - 0600Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field will
likely continue at quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active
periods are possible at high latitudes.
III. Event Probabilities 30 Dec to 01 Jan
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Dec 182 Predicted 30 Dec-01 Jan 185/185/175 90 Day Mean 29 Dec 173
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Dec 004/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Dec 008/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Dec-01 Jan 005/010-005/010-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Dec to 01 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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