Viewing archive of Thursday, 28 December 2000

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Dec 28 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 363 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Dec 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Several, mostly small C-class flares were observed. Region 9289 (S06E57) has evolved quickly into the largest and most complex region on the visible disk. It now exhibits an "Eko" beta-gamma spot group nearing 800 millionths of white light area, and was responsible for most of the C-class flares. Region 9279 (S12W77) produced a C2/sf flare at 28/1429Z with an associated Type II sweep. Region 9283 (S11W03) also produced isolated C-class flares, the largest being a C5/sf at 27/2218Z. Perhaps the most impressive event of the period was a large, full halo CME on LASCO imagery at 28/1230Z. There was no optical correlation of the source - the event appears to have originated from the backside of the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 9289 has potential for isolated M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with isolated unsettled conditions at high latitudes.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 29 Dec to 31 Dec
Class M50%60%60%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       28 Dec 185
  Predicted   29 Dec-31 Dec  185/185/185
  90 Day Mean        28 Dec 173
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 27 Dec  007/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 28 Dec  008/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 29 Dec-31 Dec  005/010-005/010-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Dec to 31 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%25%25%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%

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