Viewing archive of Wednesday, 27 December 2000

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Dec 27 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 362 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Dec 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z

Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 9289 (S08E64) produced an M4/1f at 27/1544 UTC. This region also produced several mid-level C-class flares throughout the day, as did Region 9283 (S11E11), which is now exhibiting a somewhat more complex magnetic configuration that may indicate emergence of two bipolar subgroups in close proximity within the active region. Meanwhile, Region 9280 (N10W31) has diminished in activity, areal coverage and spot count, and Region 9289 has replaced it as the largest group on the disk (330 millionths, in a Dao-beta configuration). Other activity observed this period included a weak Type II radio sweep at 27/0347 UTC. SOHO/LASCO imagery suggests the source to be a CME event from behind the west limb, which does not appear earth-directed. New Region 9290 (N30E31) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. A somewhat increased chance for isolated M-class activity is expected for regions 9283 and 9289.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days, barring an earth-directed CME event.
III. Event Probabilities 28 Dec to 30 Dec
Class M50%50%50%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       27 Dec 188
  Predicted   28 Dec-30 Dec  190/185/180
  90 Day Mean        27 Dec 174
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 26 Dec  004/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 27 Dec  006/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 28 Dec-30 Dec  005/010-005/010-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Dec to 30 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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