Viewing archive of Thursday, 30 November 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Nov 30 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 335 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Nov 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Two M-class events
occurred -- an M1 at 0925 UTC, and recently an M1 at 2038 UTC.
Region 9246 (S12E19) produced subfaint optical flares corresponding
to the x-ray bursts. This region has grown in white light and
h-alpha throughout the period, and is the most volatile region of
the ten on the disk. Two new regions were born on the disk, 9248
(N04W17) and 9249 (N11E45). Region 9236 (N20W89) is making an
uneventful west limb passage.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Region 9246 should produce occasional M-class activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to persist at quiet to unsettled levels for the next three
days.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Dec to 03 Dec
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Nov 192 Predicted 01 Dec-03 Dec 190/185/180 90 Day Mean 30 Nov 176
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Nov 032/052 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Nov 005/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Dec-03 Dec 010/010-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Dec to 03 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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