Viewing archive of Thursday, 30 November 2000

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Nov 30 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 335 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Nov 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Two M-class events occurred -- an M1 at 0925 UTC, and recently an M1 at 2038 UTC. Region 9246 (S12E19) produced subfaint optical flares corresponding to the x-ray bursts. This region has grown in white light and h-alpha throughout the period, and is the most volatile region of the ten on the disk. Two new regions were born on the disk, 9248 (N04W17) and 9249 (N11E45). Region 9236 (N20W89) is making an uneventful west limb passage.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate. Region 9246 should produce occasional M-class activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to persist at quiet to unsettled levels for the next three days.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Dec to 03 Dec
Class M60%60%60%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       30 Nov 192
  Predicted   01 Dec-03 Dec  190/185/180
  90 Day Mean        30 Nov 176
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 29 Nov  032/052
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 30 Nov  005/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 01 Dec-03 Dec  010/010-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Dec to 03 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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