Viewing archive of Wednesday, 29 November 2000

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Nov 29 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 334 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Nov 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z

Solar activity was low. The largest flare of the past day was a C9/Sf at 29/0629 UTC in Region 9246 (S12E33). The flare was associated with an intensity one Type II radio sweep. This is a rapidly developing D-type sunspot group that has produced several C-class subflares. Region 9236 (N19W79) continues its decay as it approaches the west limb and has not produced significant activity during the past day. The large bushy filament centered at about S35W45 erupted sometime between 28/1653 UTC and 29/0649 UTC. No other associated activity was apparent. New Region 9247 (N13E20) was numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. An isolated M-class flare is possible in either Region 9242 and 9246.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to severe storm levels. Severe storm conditions were observed at many stations during the 29/0300-0600 UTC period. Solar wind parameters were relatively benign suggesting that this activity was associated with the dissipation of energy stored in the geomagnetic field over the past few days. The greater that 10 MeV proton event ended at 29/0200 UTC (begin 24/1520 UTC and peak of 942 sfu at 26/2030 UTC).
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active. Active to storm periods are possible at local night time over the next 24 to 48 hours.
III. Event Probabilities 30 Nov to 02 Dec
Class M30%30%30%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       29 Nov 188
  Predicted   30 Nov-02 Dec  185/180/170
  90 Day Mean        29 Nov 176
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 28 Nov  018/037
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 29 Nov  040/050
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 30 Nov-02 Dec  015/025-010/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Nov to 02 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%20%15%
Minor storm15%10%05%
Major-severe storm10%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%30%20%
Minor storm30%20%10%
Major-severe storm15%10%05%

All times in UTC

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