Viewing archive of Thursday, 2 November 2000

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Nov 02 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 307 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Nov 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 9218 (N19E26) produced several minor C-class events. Region 9218 (N19E26) grew significantly in area since yesterday but maintained a simple beta magnetic configuration. An EPL occurred on the northwest limb at approximately 02/1744Z. Further analysis is required as data becomes available. SOHO/LASCO imagery indicated an earth-directed full halo CME from a filament eruption east of Region 9214 yesterday at approximately S17E39. The CME was first visible above the SE limb at 01/1626Z. The imagery suggests most of the material and energy associated with the CME is directed to the southeast. However, evidence of a weak full halo is clear. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled the first day. Due to the expected arrival of the earth-directed full halo CME mentioned above, active conditions are expected on the second day of the period. Minor storm levels are possible in the higher latitudes. The geomagnetic field is expected to decrease to predominantly unsettled conditions toward the end of the period.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Nov to 05 Nov
Class M50%50%50%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       02 Nov 196
  Predicted   03 Nov-05 Nov  200/200/195
  90 Day Mean        02 Nov 172
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 01 Nov  004/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 02 Nov  005/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 03 Nov-05 Nov  008/010-020/020-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Nov to 05 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%30%30%
Minor storm05%15%15%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%35%35%
Minor storm05%20%20%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%

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