Viewing archive of Wednesday, 6 December 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Dec 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 341 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Dec 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z Solar activity has been low. The largest event was an
optically uncorrelated C7 flare at 06/1518 UTC. Available H-alpha
imagery suggests a likely source on or just behind the west limb,
possibly Region 9242 (N20W94). Region 9246 (S11W62) was a source of
several lesser C-class events. Region 9254 (N10E23) exhibited some
growth today, but without any notable activity, and new Region 9257
(N19E38) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly low for the next three days. A chance of isolated
moderate activity exists for regions 9254 and 9246.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be quiet to unsettled through day two. An increase to
active levels with isolated minor storming is expected for day
three, due to the influence of a favorably positioned coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 07 Dec to 09 Dec
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Dec 141 Predicted 07 Dec-09 Dec 140/140/145 90 Day Mean 06 Dec 176
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Dec 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Dec 006/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Dec-09 Dec 010/010-010/010-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Dec to 09 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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