Viewing archive of Sunday, 19 November 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Nov 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 324 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Nov 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity has been low. The only activity of note
was the occurrence of five C-class flares, the largest an optically
uncorrelated C9 at 19/0207Z. Region 9231 (S24W10) remains the
largest and most complex of the eight active regions currently on
the visible disk as a 40-spot FAO group with beta-gamma
configuration. Region 9235 (N13E20) also warrants attention as a
29-spot EAI group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate, with regions 9235 and 9231 continuing as the most
likely sources of moderate activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain quite to unsettled for the next three days, with
the possibility of isolated periods of active conditions on day one.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Nov to 22 Nov
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Nov 175 Predicted 20 Nov-22 Nov 180/185/185 90 Day Mean 19 Nov 171
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Nov 004/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Nov 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Nov-22 Nov 012/015-010/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Nov to 22 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
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