Viewing archive of Monday, 25 October 1999

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Oct 25 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 298 Issued at 2200Z on 25 OCT 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. AN M1/1B FLARE OCCURRED AT 25/0631UT FROM REGION 8741 (S25E22). REGION 8739 (S12E03) CONTINUED TO GROW IN SIZE AND COMPLEXITY. THE LARGEST FLARE IN THIS REGION SINCE YESTERDAY WAS A C2/SF AT 25/0740UT. NEW REGIONS 8743 (S15E20) AND 8744 (N08E43) WERE NUMBERED. A LARGE FILAMENT NEAR S32W30 TO S54E25 ERUPTED FROM ABOUT 25/1215-1351UT. SIGNIFICANT X-RAY OR RADIO OUTPUT WAS NOT OBSERVED WITH THE ERUPTION. COMPLETE CME INFORMATION FROM LASCO WAS NOT YET AVAILABLE AT THIS WRITING.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. THE LIKELIHOOD OF A MAJOR FLARE IN REGION 8739 IS INCREASING WITH ITS CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS MODERATE TO HIGH.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS.
III. Event Probabilities 26 OCT to 28 OCT
Class M50%50%50%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 OCT 179
  Predicted   26 OCT-28 OCT  170/170/170
  90 Day Mean        25 OCT 158
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 24 OCT  020/023
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 25 OCT  020/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 26 OCT-28 OCT  020/018-015/015-010/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 OCT to 28 OCT
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm15%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm20%15%15%
Major-severe storm15%05%05%

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