Viewing archive of Sunday, 24 October 1999

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Oct 24 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 297 Issued at 2200Z on 24 OCT 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. SMALL C-CLASS FLARES CONTINUED BUT AT A LESS FREQUENT RATE THAN YESTERDAY. REGION 8741 (S26E36) PRODUCED THE LARGEST REPORTED FLARE, A C2/SF AT 24/1606UT. GROWTH IN THIS REGION HAS SLOWED. REGION 8739 (S12E16) CONTINUED TO DEVELOP AND APPEARS TO HAVE FORMED A SMALL DELTA CONFIGURATION IN THE CENTRAL SUNSPOTS.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. C-CLASS EVENTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. M-CLASS FLARES ARE POSSIBLE IN REGIONS 8739 AND 8741.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED IN ACTIVITY FROM QUIET TO MINOR STORM. THE MOST DISTURBED PERIOD OCCURRED FROM 24/0600-0900UT. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS MODERATE TO HIGH.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS BECOMING QUIET TO UNSETTLED BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 25 OCT to 27 OCT
Class M30%30%30%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 OCT 159
  Predicted   25 OCT-27 OCT  160/155/150
  90 Day Mean        24 OCT 158
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 23 OCT  026/026
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 24 OCT  025/025
PREDICTED AFR/AP 25 OCT-27 OCT  020/020-015/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 OCT to 27 OCT
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%25%20%
Minor storm15%15%10%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm15%15%10%

All times in UTC

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