Viewing archive of Tuesday, 28 September 1999

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Sep 28 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 271 Issued at 2200Z on 28 SEP 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. ONE NEW REGION WAS NUMBERED: 8711 (N24W31).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE DUE TO A HIGH SPEED CORONAL HOLE STREAM. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT REACHED HIGH LEVELS AT 28/1330UT AND REMAINED AT HIGH LEVELS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS.
III. Event Probabilities 29 SEP to 01 OCT
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       28 SEP 126
  Predicted   29 SEP-01 OCT  125/120/120
  90 Day Mean        28 SEP 158
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 27 SEP  031/037
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 28 SEP  025/018
PREDICTED AFR/AP 29 SEP-01 OCT  015/012-010/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 SEP to 01 OCT
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%15%15%
Minor storm15%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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