Viewing archive of Saturday, 4 April 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Apr 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 094 Issued at 2200Z on 04 APR 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY CONTINUED AT LOW LEVELS. REGION 8190
(S20W03) PRODUCED A C6/SF FLARE AT 03/2335UT, BUT WAS GENERALLY
STABLE IN SIZE AND SPOT COUNT. A LONG-DURATION C6 X-RAY BURST (LDE)
OCCURRED AT 04/0757UT WITH NO OPTICAL ASSOCIATION. THE LDE MAY BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RETURN OF OLD REGION 8179, WHICH PRODUCED
MODERATE ACTIVITY DURING ITS LAST PASSAGE. EXTREMELY INTENSE CORONAL
EMISSIONS PRESAGED THE RETURN OF REGION 8179 AND AT ISSUE TIME A
SINGLE SPOT WITH MATURE PENUMBRA WAS SEEN ROTATING INTO VIEW. NEW
REGION 8193 (S22E42) WAS NUMBERED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
WITH AN INCREASING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD. CHANCES FOR M-CLASS
FLARE ACTIVITY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL, GIVEN THE RETURN
OF OLD REGION 8179.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2
MEV ELECTRON FLUX DECLINED TO NORMAL LEVELS EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS FOR THE DURATION OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 05 APR to 07 APR
| Class M | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 APR 110 Predicted 05 APR-07 APR 114/118/122 90 Day Mean 04 APR 099
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 03 APR 005/006 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 APR 008/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 APR-07 APR 005/010-008/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 APR to 07 APR
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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