Viewing archive of Friday, 1 May 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 May 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 121 Issued at 2200Z on 01 MAY 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MODERATE FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.
REGION 8214 (N26E34) PRODUCED AN M1/1N FLARE THAT REACHED MAXIMUM AT
1300 UT. REGION 8214 IS DEVELOPING RAPIDLY IN WHITE LIGHT AND HAS
BECOME MAGNETICALLY COMPLEX (BETA-GAMMA). REGION 8210 (S17W09)
PRODUCED SEVERAL SUBFLARES, AND HAS DEVELOPED IN SIZE AND COMPLEXITY
INCLUDING A MAGNETIC DELTA CONFIGURATION. NUMEROUS SMALL RADIO
BURSTS AND TYPE III SWEEPS WERE OBSERVED THROUGH THE DAY. NO NEW
REGIONS WERE NUMBERED, BUT SATELLITE AND GROUND-BASED IMAGES IN
SEVERAL WAVELENGTHS INDICATE THAT ACTIVE REGIONS, INCLUDING THE
POSSIBLE RETURN OF OLD REGION 8194, WILL SOON APPEAR OVER THE
SOUTHEAST LIMB.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE. REGIONS 8210 AND 8214 ARE BOTH CAPABLE OF M-CLASS OR
LARGER X-RAY FLARES.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z
GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MOSTLY QUIET FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO REACH MINOR STORM LEVELS ON 02 MAY IN RESPONSE TO THE
ANTICIPATED ARRIVAL OF AN M6/HALO CORONAL MASS EJECTION OBSERVED ON
29 APRIL. CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO UNSETTLED LEVELS BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 02 MAY to 04 MAY
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 MAY 113 Predicted 02 MAY-04 MAY 120/130/140 90 Day Mean 01 MAY 104
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 30 APR 012/012 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 01 MAY 007/007 PREDICTED AFR/AP 02 MAY-04 MAY 030/027-010/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 MAY to 04 MAY
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 15% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 15% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 10% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 05% | 01% |
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