Viewing archive of Friday, 3 April 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Apr 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 093 Issued at 2200Z on 03 APR 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8190 (S20W02)
PRODUCED ISOLATED B-CLASS SUBFLARES AND APPEARED TO STABILIZE AS A
SMALL E-TYPE GROUP. THE REMAINING REGIONS WERE STABLE AS WELL. NO
NEW REGIONS WERE ASSIGNED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
WITH A INCREASING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE INCREASE IS FORECAST
BASED UPON THE EXPECTED RETURN OF HISTORICALLY ACTIVE LONGITUDES
(OLD REGION 8179).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES. THE GREATER THAN 2
MEV ELECTRON FLUX WAS AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON
FLUX IS EXPECTED TO DECLINE TO NORMAL TO MODERATE LEVELS EARLY IN
THE PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 04 APR to 06 APR
| Class M | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 APR 104 Predicted 04 APR-06 APR 106/110/114 90 Day Mean 03 APR 099
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 02 APR 001/004 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 03 APR 006/006 PREDICTED AFR/AP 04 APR-06 APR 005/008-005/008-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 APR to 06 APR
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
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