Viewing archive of Friday, 13 February 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Feb 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 044 Issued at 2200Z on 13 FEB 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. ONLY INFREQUENT B-CLASS
X-RAY FLARES OCCURRED. REGION 8156 (S25E30) CONTINUED TO GROW AND IS
NOW AN E-TYPE SUNPOT GROUP.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW. ISOLATED C-CLASS ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE IN REGION 8156.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ALTITUDE WAS MODERATE TO HIGH.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON
FLUX IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS.
III. Event Probabilities 14 FEB to 16 FEB
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 FEB 095 Predicted 14 FEB-16 FEB 096/098/098 90 Day Mean 13 FEB 096
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 12 FEB 008/008 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 13 FEB 006/006 PREDICTED AFR/AP 14 FEB-16 FEB 010/007-010/007-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 FEB to 16 FEB
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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