Viewing archive of Saturday, 14 February 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Feb 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 045 Issued at 2200Z on 14 FEB 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8156 (S24E16)
CONTINUED TO EMERGE, INCREASING IN BOTH SUNSPOT AREA AND NUMBER. THE
LARGEST FLARE FROM THIS REGION DURING THE PAST DAY WAS A SF/B8 AT
14/0952Z. THIS RELATIVELY UNREMARKABLE FLARE IN X-RAYS AND H-ALPHA
WAS APPARENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH A "SOUTHWARD DIRECTED, HALO CME"
EVENT OBSERVED IN THE SOHO/LASCO INSTRUMENT. REGION 8159 (N33E41)
WAS NEWLY NUMBERED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW. INCREASED FLARE ACTIVITY IS PROBABLE IF REGION 8156
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX
AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ALTITUDE WAS HIGH.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET AT MIDDLE LATITUDES AND QUIET TO UNSETTLED AT
HIGH LATITUDES.
III. Event Probabilities 15 FEB to 17 FEB
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 FEB 105 Predicted 15 FEB-17 FEB 110/115/115 90 Day Mean 14 FEB 096
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 13 FEB 005/006 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 FEB 004/006 PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 FEB-17 FEB 005/007-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 FEB to 17 FEB
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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