Viewing archive of Saturday, 17 January 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Jan 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 017 Issued at 2200Z on 17 JAN 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8131 (S23W61)
PRODUCED A SUBFLARE AT 17/0112Z AND AGAIN AT 17/0159Z BUT HAS BEEN
QUIET SINCE. THIS REGION EXHIBITED CONSIDERABLE DECAY OVER THE PAST
24-48 HOURS AND NOW CONSISTS OF 10 SPOTS MEASURING 260 MILLIONTHS IN
WHITE LIGHT AREA. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NOTED IN THE REMAINING
REGIONS. NEW REGION 8139 (N14E37), A THREE SPOT AXX GROUP, WAS
NUMBERED TODAY. SPACE-BASED IMAGES SHOW ENHANCED EMISSIONS ON THE
SOUTHEAST LIMB. THIS IS THE PROBABLE SOURCE REGION OF A PROMINENCE
ERUPTION EARLY IN THE PERIOD. NO APPARENT CORRELATED ACTIVITY WAS
OBSERVED WITH THIS EVENT.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW. REGION 8131 APPEARS TO BE THE ONLY THREAT FOR C-CLASS
ACTIVITY AND MAINTAINS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF PRODUCING AN M-CLASS
FLARE.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET. HIGH LATITUDES EXPERIENCED
SOME INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF UNSETTLED ACTIVITY EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET.
III. Event Probabilities 18 JAN to 20 JAN
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 JAN 096 Predicted 18 JAN-20 JAN 096/098/100 90 Day Mean 17 JAN 096
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 16 JAN 005/008 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 17 JAN 005/005 PREDICTED AFR/AP 18 JAN-20 JAN 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 JAN to 20 JAN
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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