Viewing archive of Monday, 13 October 1997
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Oct 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 286 Issued at 2200Z on 13 OCT 1997IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW. A LONG DURATION B6.8
X-RAY ENHANCEMENT WAS OBSERVED BETWEEN 13/0910-1423Z. COINCIDENT IN
TIME, THE MAJORITY OF A FILAMENT LOCATED NEAR S34W29 WAS SEEN TO
SLOWLY DISSIPATE IN PLACE. REGION 8093 (N31W11) EXHIBITED SLOW
GROWTH.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN AT A VERY
LOW LEVEL FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS PREDOMINANTLY QUIET. BRIEF ACTIVE
CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED BETWEEN 13/0900-1200Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE
DAYS. ISOLATED PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON 14 AND
15 OCT.
III. Event Probabilities 14 OCT to 16 OCT
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 OCT 088 Predicted 14 OCT-16 OCT 089/090/089 90 Day Mean 13 OCT 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 12 OCT 006/007 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 13 OCT 008/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 14 OCT-16 OCT 012/015-012/012-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 OCT to 16 OCT
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
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