Viewing archive of Tuesday, 14 October 1997
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Oct 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 287 Issued at 2200Z on 14 OCT 1997IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME LOW. REGION 8094 (N21W73)
PRODUCED A C1/1F FLARE AT 13/2318Z. NEW REGION 8096 (N14E63) EMERGED
AT A MODERATE PACE DURING THE PERIOD.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE AT
GENERALLY VERY LOW LEVELS FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ISOLATED
ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 15 OCT to 17 OCT
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 OCT 085 Predicted 15 OCT-17 OCT 086/086/088 90 Day Mean 14 OCT 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 13 OCT 009/007 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 OCT 005/005 PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 OCT-17 OCT 010/010-005/008-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 OCT to 17 OCT
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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