Viewing archive of Tuesday, 16 September 1997
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Sep 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 259 Issued at 2200Z on 16 SEP 1997IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8086 (N28E14) PRODUCED A
SINGLE C1/SF FLARE AT 15/2125Z. THIS REGION IS SLOWLY DECAYING. AN
UNCORRELATED C1 X-RAY BURST WAS DETECTED AT 16/2030Z. REGION 8084
(N22W77), STILL GROWING, PRODUCED A SERIES OF B-CLASS FLARES OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. REGION 8085 (25W55) WAS QUIET AND IS SLOWLY
DECAYING.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW. REGIONS 8084 AND 8086 HAVE A DIMINISHED CHANCE OF CONTINUED
C-CLASS FLARING AND AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED AT ALL LATITUDES. THE
GREATER THAN 2 MEV ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUX WAS HIGH.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 17 SEP to 19 SEP
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 SEP 095 Predicted 17 SEP-19 SEP 094/090/086 90 Day Mean 16 SEP 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 15 SEP 012/016 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 SEP 007/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 SEP-19 SEP 010/008-010/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 SEP to 19 SEP
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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