Viewing archive of Monday, 15 September 1997
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Sep 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 258 Issued at 2200Z on 15 SEP 1997IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8084 (N21W64) PRODUCED A
C3.6/SF AND A C4/SF FLARE. THIS REGION IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF
SLOW DECAY AS IT NEARS THE WEST LIMB. REGION 8086 (N27E27) PRODUCED
A C1/SN AND A C1/SF FLARE. THIS REGION IS SLOWLY GROWING. REGION
8085 (S26W37) REMAINED QUIET AND IS SLOWLY DECAYING. THE REMAINDER
OF THE VISIBLE DISK WAS QUIET AND STABLE.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW. REGIONS 8084 AND 8086 BOTH HAVE A GOOD CHANCE FOR CONTINUED
C-CLASS EVENTS AND AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED M-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH AN ISOLATED
PERIOD OF ACTIVE LEVELS AT MID LATITUDES AROUND 15/0300Z AND HIGH
LATITUDES AROUND 15/1200Z. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ENERGETIC
ELECTRONS CONTINUED IN THE HIGH RANGE.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 16 SEP to 18 SEP
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 SEP 098 Predicted 16 SEP-18 SEP 098/098/094 90 Day Mean 15 SEP 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 14 SEP 013/012 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 SEP 013/015 PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 SEP-18 SEP 010/010-010/010-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 SEP to 18 SEP
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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