Viewing archive of Thursday, 2 October 1997
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Oct 02 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 275 Issued at 2200Z on 02 OCT 1997IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8090 (S27E41), A ONE
SPOT 'HSX' ALPHA, GENERATED A SINGLE C1/SF FLARE AT 02/0245Z. THE
ONLY OTHER ACTIVE REGION ON THE VISIBLE DISK, REGION 8091 (N25E60),
A SEVEN SPOT 'CRO' BETA, HAS REMAINED QUIET AND STABLE.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN MOSTLY QUIET FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS,
FOLLOWING YESTERDAY'S DISTURBANCE WHICH ENDED AT APPROXIMATELY
01/1800Z. YESTERDAY'S EVENT REACHED MAJOR STORM LEVELS AT MIDDLE
LATITUDES, AND SEVERE STORM LEVELS AT HIGH LATITUDES, WITH
CONSECUTIVE K VALUES OF 7 AND 8 RECORDED AT COLLEGE, ALASKA.
DURING THE INTERVAL 01/0900-1500Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS, WITH THE CHANCE
FOR ISOLATED PERIODS OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.
III. Event Probabilities 03 OCT to 05 OCT
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 OCT 086 Predicted 03 OCT-05 OCT 088/088/090 90 Day Mean 02 OCT 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 01 OCT 032/041 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 02 OCT 005/005 PREDICTED AFR/AP 03 OCT-05 OCT 005/005-005/005-010/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 OCT to 05 OCT
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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