Viewing archive of Sunday, 5 January 1997
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Jan 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 5 Issued at 2200Z on 05 JAN 1997IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN VERY LOW. A LONG DURATION, LOW
INTENSITY (A6) X-RAY EVENT WAS OBSERVED BY GOES-9 FROM 1331-1610 UT.
THERE WERE NO IMAGE OBSERVATIONS AVAILABLE TO PINPOINT THE SOURCE OF
THIS EVENT. REGION 8009 (S03W18) IS A SMALL AND VERY STABLE BXO
GROUP.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS, WITH A
POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED ACTIVE CONDITIONS. AN INCREASE FROM TODAY'S
QUIET LEVELS IS ANTICIPATED BECAUSE OF RECURRENCE EFFECTS.
III. Event Probabilities 06 JAN to 08 JAN
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 JAN 074 Predicted 06 JAN-08 JAN 074/075/076 90 Day Mean 05 JAN 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 04 JAN 004/004 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 05 JAN 005/005 PREDICTED AFR/AP 06 JAN-08 JAN 010/012-010/010-010/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 JAN to 08 JAN
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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