Viewing archive of Saturday, 4 January 1997
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Jan 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 4 Issued at 2200Z on 04 JAN 1997IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW. MIDWAY THROUGH THE
PERIOD, A REGION BEGAN TO EMERGE AT A MODERATE PACE NEAR S02W04 AND
WAS NUMBERED AS NEW REGION 8009.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN AT A VERY
LOW LEVEL. CONTINUED GROWTH IN NEW REGION 8009 COULD RAISE ACTIVITY
LEVELS IN 1-2 DAYS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE
PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ISOLATED
ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME.
III. Event Probabilities 05 JAN to 07 JAN
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 JAN 074 Predicted 05 JAN-07 JAN 076/078/080 90 Day Mean 04 JAN 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 03 JAN 003/002 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 JAN 004/003 PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 JAN-07 JAN 008/008-010/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 JAN to 07 JAN
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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