Viewing archive of Monday, 6 January 1997
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Jan 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 6 Issued at 2200Z on 06 JAN 1997IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. A NINE DEGREE FILAMENT
NEAR S20E10 DISAPPEARED SOMETIME BETWEEN 05/1939 UT AND 06/2300 UT.
AN ADDITIONAL FILAMENT ERUPTION OF 13 DEGREES NEAR S23W03 WAS
REPORTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN 1301-1453 UT TODAY. REGION 8009 (S04W32),
THE ONLY SPOTTED REGION ON THE DISK, WAS VERY QUIET AND STABLE.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR BRIEF ACTIVE PERIODS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE
POSSIBLE INCREASE IN ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED BECAUSE OF RECURRENCE
PATTERNS.
III. Event Probabilities 07 JAN to 09 JAN
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 JAN 073 Predicted 07 JAN-09 JAN 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 06 JAN 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 05 JAN 004/003 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 06 JAN 003/005 PREDICTED AFR/AP 07 JAN-09 JAN 010/010-010/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 JAN to 09 JAN
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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