Viewing archive of Monday, 23 December 1996
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1996 Dec 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 358 Issued at 2200Z on 23 DEC 1996IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8008 (S04W10)
CONTINUED TO PRODUCE SMALL SUBFLARES. NONE OF THEM WERE ASSOCIATED
WITH SIGNIFICANT X-RAY OUTPUT. A SMALL FILAMENT ERUPTED NEAR
(S14W67) BEGINNING AT 23/2016Z. THIS DSF WAS LOCATED NEAR REGION
8005 (S13W67) AND WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A B2/SF FLARE WHICH PEAKED AT
23/2053Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO MINOR STORM LEVELS. MINOR STORM
CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED AT SOME LOCATIONS DURING THE 23/0000-0300Z
PERIOD. THE FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET SINCE ABOUT 23/0900Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT DAY, BECOMING MOSTLY
QUIET FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 24 DEC to 26 DEC
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 DEC 080 Predicted 24 DEC-26 DEC 076/074/070 90 Day Mean 23 DEC 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 22 DEC 007/006 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 23 DEC 010/009 PREDICTED AFR/AP 24 DEC-26 DEC 005/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 DEC to 26 DEC
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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