Viewing archive of Tuesday, 26 November 1996
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1996 Nov 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 331 Issued at 2200Z on 26 NOV 1996IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 7999 (S04W07)
PRODUCED A C1/SF FLARE AT 26/1339Z. THIS REGION STABILIZED
DURING THE PERIOD AND MAY BE EXHIBITING SLIGHT DECAY. SOME
ISOLATED MIXED POLARITIES WERE OBSERVED BUT THE REGION IS
PREDOMINANTLY BI-POLAR. ONLY POLAR CORONAL HOLES WERE
VISIBLE.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO BE
PREDOMINANTLY LOW. REGION 7999 RETAINS THE CAPABILITY OF
PRODUCING AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT. HOWEVER, IF THE CURRENT
DECAY TREND IN REGION 7999 CONTINUES, BOTH C-CLASS AND M-CLASS
FLARES WILL BECOME LESS LIKELY.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED.
SOLAR WIND DATA INDICATE A BENIGN STREAM IN THE EARTH'S
VICINITY.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
FORECAST TO BE QUIET TO SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT
THREE DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 27 NOV to 29 NOV
| Class M | 40% | 30% | 20% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 NOV 104 Predicted 27 NOV-29 NOV 102/098/096 90 Day Mean 26 NOV 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 25 NOV 005/004 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 26 NOV 005/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 27 NOV-29 NOV 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 NOV to 29 NOV
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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