Viewing archive of Friday, 25 October 1996
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1996 Oct 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 299 Issued at 2200Z on 25 OCT 1996IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. NO FLARES OCCURRED.
NEW REGION 7991, A THREE SPOT 'BXO' NEW CYCLE (POSITIVE LEADER /
NEGATIVE TRAILER) GROUP, WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED
LEVELS FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS, WITH A SINGLE PERIOD OF ACTIVE
CONDITIONS RECORDED AT HIGH LATITUDES DURING THE INTERVAL
25/0600-0900Z. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX WAS
MODERATE TO HIGH.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS, WITH
AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR ISOLATED PERIODS OF MINOR STORMING ON
DAYS ONE AND TWO, DUE TO A FAVORABLY POSITIONED CORONAL HOLE.
III. Event Probabilities 26 OCT to 28 OCT
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 OCT 070 Predicted 26 OCT-28 OCT 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 25 OCT 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 24 OCT 010/011 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 25 OCT 010/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 26 OCT-28 OCT 020/025-015/015-015/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 OCT to 28 OCT
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
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