Viewing archive of Thursday, 24 October 1996
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1996 Oct 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 298 Issued at 2200Z on 24 OCT 1996IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. THERE ARE NO SPOTTED
REGIONS. THERE WERE NO FLARES.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. SOLAR WIND DATA
SUGGESTS THAT THE HIGH SPEED STREAM HAS ABATED SOMEWHAT. THE
GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX WAS MODERATE TO HIGH.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT DAY. ANOTHER
EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE MAY PRODUCE ACTIVE CONDITIONS BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 25 OCT to 27 OCT
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 OCT 070 Predicted 25 OCT-27 OCT 070/070/068 90 Day Mean 24 OCT 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 23 OCT 031/035 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 24 OCT 010/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 25 OCT-27 OCT 010/010-015/025-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 OCT to 27 OCT
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
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