Viewing archive of Friday, 27 September 1996
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1996 Sep 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 271 Issued at 2200Z on 27 SEP 1996IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. THE DISK REMAINED
SPOTLESS.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
VERY LOW FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS ACTIVE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD. QUIET TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED FOR THE
LATTER HALF. SOLAR WIND DATA INDICATE A CORONAL HOLE STREAM
IS THE CAUSE OF THIS DISTURBANCE. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES
AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE MODERATE TO HIGH.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
FORECAST TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT THREE
DAYS DUE TO CORONAL HOLE STREAMS IMPACTING THE EARTH. ISOLATED
MINOR STORMING IS POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME.
III. Event Probabilities 28 SEP to 30 SEP
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 SEP 070 Predicted 28 SEP-30 SEP 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 27 SEP 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 26 SEP 024/023 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 27 SEP 017/015 PREDICTED AFR/AP 28 SEP-30 SEP 015/015-018/018-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 SEP to 30 SEP
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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