Viewing archive of Saturday, 12 October 1996
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1996 Oct 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 286 Issued at 2200Z on 12 OCT 1996IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. THE VISIBLE DISK
REMAINS FEATURELESS SAVE FOR A FEW MINOR FILAMENTS.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS FOR
THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ENERGETIC ELECTRON
FLUX REACHED HIGH LEVELS AT 12/1545Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 13 OCT to 15 OCT
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 OCT 067 Predicted 13 OCT-15 OCT 068/068/068 90 Day Mean 12 OCT 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 11 OCT 007/007 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 12 OCT 013/012 PREDICTED AFR/AP 13 OCT-15 OCT 015/010-010/010-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 OCT to 15 OCT
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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