Viewing archive of Sunday, 15 September 1996
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1996 Sep 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 259 Issued at 2200Z on 15 SEP 1996IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. NO FLARES OCCURRED
AS THE VISIBLE DISK REMAINS SPOTLESS AND ESSENTIALLY
FEATURELESS.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED
LEVELS FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS, WITH ISOLATED PERIODS OF ACTIVE
CONDITIONS. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRONS REMAIN AT HIGH
LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS,
WITH THE CHANCE FOR CONTINUED ISOLATED PERIODS OF ACTIVE
CONDITIONS.
III. Event Probabilities 16 SEP to 18 SEP
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 SEP 066 Predicted 16 SEP-18 SEP 069/070/072 90 Day Mean 15 SEP 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 14 SEP 012/011 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 SEP 012/012 PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 SEP-18 SEP 010/010-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 SEP to 18 SEP
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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