Viewing archive of Monday, 19 August 1996
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1996 Aug 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 232 Issued at 2200Z on 19 AUG 1996IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW. A SMALL REGION
EMERGED NEAR N10W13 AND WAS NUMBERED AS NEW REGION 7985.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN VERY LOW FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. PREVIOUSLY ACTIVE
LONGITUDES ARE DUE TO RETURN AT THE END OF THE PERIOD BUT
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT ACTIVITY LEVELS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ALTITUDE BRIEFLY REACHED
THE HIGH LEVEL AT 18/2145Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
FORECAST TO BE PREDOMINANTLY QUIET FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 20 AUG to 22 AUG
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 AUG 068 Predicted 20 AUG-22 AUG 068/068/070 90 Day Mean 19 AUG 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 18 AUG 006/005 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 19 AUG 006/005 PREDICTED AFR/AP 20 AUG-22 AUG 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 AUG to 22 AUG
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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