Viewing archive of Sunday, 13 October 1996
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1996 Oct 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 287 Issued at 2200Z on 13 OCT 1996IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. THE DISK IS SPOTLESS
AND NEARLY FEATURELESS.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO MINOR STORM LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY UNSETTLED. NIGHTTIME SUBSTORMS MAY
CAUSE INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS.
III. Event Probabilities 14 OCT to 16 OCT
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 OCT 068 Predicted 14 OCT-16 OCT 068/068/068 90 Day Mean 13 OCT 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 12 OCT 016/013 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 13 OCT 018/020 PREDICTED AFR/AP 14 OCT-16 OCT 015/012-010/010-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 OCT to 16 OCT
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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