Viewing archive of Thursday, 29 August 1996
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1996 Aug 29 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 242 Issued at 2200Z on 29 AUG 1996IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 7986 (S12W00)
HAS EVOLVED INTO A TEN SPOT CSO GROUP, AND HAS REMAINED QUIET
SINCE GENERATING YESTERDAY'S C1/SF FLARE.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW, WITH A DECREASED 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
C-CLASS X-RAY EVENT FROM REGION 7986.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT MOSTLY UNSETTLED TO MINOR
STORM LEVELS AT MIDDLE LATITUDES, AND UNSETTLED TO MAJOR
STORM LEVELS AT HIGH LATITUDES DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
THIS INCREASED ACTIVITY IS BELIEVED TOL HOLE. SOLAR WIND DATA RECEIVE
D TODAY FROM THE WIND
SPACECRAFT REVEALED VELOCITIES IN EXCESS OF 600 KM/S AND
DENSITIES IN THE 4-6 P/CC RANGE. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRONS CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE IN THE MODERATE TO HIGH
RANGE.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS,
WITH A HIGH PROBABILITY FOR ISOLATED PERIODS OF MINOR AND
MAJOR STORMING, AND THEN REVERTING BACK TO MOSTLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS ON DAYS TWO AND THREE.
III. Event Probabilities 30 AUG to 01 SEP
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 AUG 074 Predicted 30 AUG-01 SEP 075/074/074 90 Day Mean 29 AUG 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 28 AUG 017/014 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 29 AUG 023/030 PREDICTED AFR/AP 30 AUG-01 SEP 020/020-015/020-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 AUG to 01 SEP
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 60% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 60% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
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