Viewing archive of Friday, 2 August 1996
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1996 Aug 02 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 215 Issued at 2200Z on 02 AUG 1996IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 7981 (S09W05)
PRODUCED A FEW SMALL B-CLASS SUBFLARES. THIS REGION CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY DECAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW TO LOW. REGION 7981 MAY PRODUCE C-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. THE GREATER THAN
2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ALTITUDE RANGED FROM
NORMAL TO HIGH.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 03 AUG to 05 AUG
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 AUG 080 Predicted 03 AUG-05 AUG 080/080/078 90 Day Mean 02 AUG 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 01 AUG 015/012 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 02 AUG 012/015 PREDICTED AFR/AP 03 AUG-05 AUG 010/010-010/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 AUG to 05 AUG
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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