Viewing archive of Wednesday, 28 August 1996
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1996 Aug 28 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 241 Issued at 2200Z on 28 AUG 1996IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 7986 (S12E12)
PRODUCED A SINGLE C1/SF EVENT AT 28/0806Z. THE REGION APPEARS
STABLE AT THIS TIME AS A THREE SPOT HSX GROUP. A DSF, SEVEN
DEGREES LONG WITH A GEOMETRIC CENTER AT N28E43, WAS RECORDED
OVERNIGHT.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW, WITH A CONTINUED 40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED C-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS FROM REGION 7986.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS FOR
THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRONS CONTINUE
TO FLUCTUATE IN THE MODERATE TO HIGH RANGE.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AND THEN
INCREASING TO MOSTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE, WITH INCREASED
CHANCES FOR ISOLATED PERIODS OF MINOR/MAJOR STORMING, ON DAYS
TWO AND THREE DUE TO THE ROTATION OF A FAVORABLY POSITIONED
CORONAL HOLE.
III. Event Probabilities 29 AUG to 31 AUG
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 AUG 073 Predicted 29 AUG-31 AUG 075/075/074 90 Day Mean 28 AUG 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 27 AUG 016/014 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 28 AUG 015/015 PREDICTED AFR/AP 29 AUG-31 AUG 020/020-020/020-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 AUG to 31 AUG
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 50% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 50% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 15% | 15% |
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