Viewing archive of Thursday, 15 August 1996
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1996 Aug 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 228 Issued at 2200Z on 15 AUG 1996IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. ISOLATED SMALL X-RAY
INCREASES OCCURRED, LIKELY FROM REGION 7984 (N29E10). THIS SPOT
GROUP GREW SLIGHTLY, NOW SHOWING RUDIMENTARY PENUMBRA ON THE
LEADER SPOT.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD VARIED FROM QUIET TO MILDLY ACTIVE
DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 16 AUG to 18 AUG
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 AUG 068 Predicted 16 AUG-18 AUG 068/068/068 90 Day Mean 15 AUG 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 14 AUG 013/011 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 AUG 012/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 AUG-18 AUG 010/010-010/008-010/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 AUG to 18 AUG
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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