Viewing archive of Wednesday, 14 August 1996
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1996 Aug 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 227 Issued at 2200Z on 14 AUG 1996IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 7984 (N30E23)
WAS BORN ON THE DISK. ITS MAGNETIC ORIENTATION AND LATITUDE
ARGUE FOR IT BEING DESIGNATED AS A NEW CYCLE SPOT GROUP. IT IS
SIMPLE AND QUIET.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED AT MIDDLE
LATITUDES, AND QUIET TO ACTIVE AT HIGH LATITUDES.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 15 AUG to 17 AUG
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 AUG 069 Predicted 15 AUG-17 AUG 069/069/068 90 Day Mean 14 AUG 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 13 AUG 008/006 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 AUG 010/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 AUG-17 AUG 005/008-010/009-010/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 AUG to 17 AUG
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
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