Viewing archive of Wednesday, 11 September 1996
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1996 Sep 11 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 255 Issued at 2200Z on 11 SEP 1996IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. NO FLARES OCCURRED.
THERE ARE NO NUMBERED ACTIVE REGIONS.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. SOLAR WIND DATA
SUGGESTS THAT THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM MENTIONED YESTERDAY
CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE EARTH. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON
FLUX WAS MODERATE TO HIGH.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE BECOMING QUIET TO UNSETTLED
BY THE END OF THE THREE DAY FORECAST PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 12 SEP to 14 SEP
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 SEP 068 Predicted 12 SEP-14 SEP 068/068/068 90 Day Mean 11 SEP 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 10 SEP 034/028 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 SEP 020/017 PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 SEP-14 SEP 015/013-010/010-010/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 SEP to 14 SEP
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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