Viewing archive of torsdag, 21 mars 2002
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2002 Mar 21 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 080 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 21 Mar 2002IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 20-2100Z till 21-2100Z Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 9866
(S09W84) produced a C-class flare and a few bright surges as it
began to cross the west limb. Regions 9870 (S20W73), 9871 (S18W32)
and 9873 (S18W67) each produced C-class subflares, but were
otherwise unremarkable. New Regions 9879 (N15W50) and 9880 (N08E35)
were numbered.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. There is a fair chance for an isolated,
low-level M-class flare during the period.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 20-2100Z till 21-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was enhanced
in the wake of yesterday's proton event, but gradually decreased
toward background levels.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
Geomagnetic field activity is
forecast to be at unsettled to active levels on 22 March in response
to a partial-halo CME observed on 19 March. Quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected during the rest of the period. There is a
slight chance for a proton flare early in the period from Region
9866 as it rotates out of view.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 22 Mar till 24 Mar
| M-klass | 50% | 40% | 40% |
| X-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 21 Mar 174 Prognoserat 22 Mar-24 Mar 170/165/165 90 Day Mean 21 Mar 213
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 20 Mar 007/007 Förväntat Afr/Ap 21 Mar 006/008 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 22 Mar-24 Mar 015/015-012/012-010/010
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 22 Mar till 24 Mar
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 35% | 30% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 15% | 10% | 05% |
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Rymdvädersfakta
| Senaste X-utbrottet | 2024/05/10 | X3.8 |
| Senaste M-utbrottet | 2024/05/10 | M5.8 |
| Senaste geomagnetiska stormen | 2024/05/06 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Fläckfria dagar | |
|---|---|
| Senaste dag utan solfläckar | 2022/06/08 |
| Månadsvis faktiskt antal solfläckar | |
|---|---|
| april 2024 | 136.5 +31.6 |
| maj 2024 | 138 +1.5 |
| Last 30 days | 167.9 +77.8 |