Viewing archive of fredag, 22 februari 2002
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2002 Feb 22 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 053 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 22 Feb 2002IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 21-2100Z till 22-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 9830 (S19W34)
produced an M4/2n at 22/0010Z with minor centimetric bursts. This
region continues to slowly decay, but maintains moderate magnetic
complexity with a weak delta configuration. The vigorous activity
noted on the NW limb over the past few days is waning now, but is
the likely source of the C5 X-ray flare at 22/0630Z. Region 9835
(S08W87) appeared to develop some complexity over the past 36
hours and is quite active as it rotates around the west limb. New
Regions 9841 (S21W20), 9842 (S18E03), and 9843 (S26E58), were
numbered today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Though in decay, Region 9830 still has potential to
produce C and M-class flares with the slight chance of a major
flare. Isolated C-class flares may continue from active regions near
the west limb.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 21-2100Z till 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with isolated unsettled
periods.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at mostly quiet to unsettled levels. Active
periods are possible on day one due to the expected CME passage
associated with the M5/1n flare that occurred on 20/0612Z.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 23 Feb till 25 Feb
| M-klass | 60% | 55% | 50% |
| X-klass | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 22 Feb 192 Prognoserat 23 Feb-25 Feb 190/190/185 90 Day Mean 22 Feb 223
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 21 Feb 006/006 Förväntat Afr/Ap 22 Feb 005/006 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 23 Feb-25 Feb 015/020-010/010-007/008
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 23 Feb till 25 Feb
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 40% | 30% | 10% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 25% | 15% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 50% | 35% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 30% | 20% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 20% | 10% | 05% |
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Rymdvädersfakta
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