Diskussion av prognoserat rymdväder

Datum av rapporten: 2024 Feb 26 0030 UTC
Skapad av NOAA SWPC och bearbetad av SWL

Solaktivitet

Sammanfattning av de senaste 24 timmarna
Solar activity increased to moderate levels this period. Region 3590 (N18W13, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) produced numerous C-class events and an M2.0/1n flare at 27/1722 UTC. The region persisted as the largest and most active region on the disk with penumbral growth evident in the leader spot group. New Region 3595 (N20E46, Cai/beta) was numbered. Little change was observed across the remaining four spotted regions. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected.
Prognos
Moderate levels of solar activity and M-class flares are likely, with a chance for X-class flare activity, over 26-28 Feb.

Energirika partiklar

Sammanfattning av de senaste 24 timmarna
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.
Prognos
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels over 26-28 Feb. There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) conditions over 26-28 Feb.

Solvind

Sammanfattning av de senaste 24 timmarna
Solar wind conditions reflected weak to moderate enhanced conditions, likely due to weak CME effects. Total field field generally varied from 5 to 12 nT and Bz reached southward to -8/-10 nT. Wind speed increased from about 350 km/s to a peak of around 460 km/s. Total phi remained in a mostly negative orientation.
Prognos
Continued enhanced conditions are expected over 26 Feb due to a combination of CME effects (25 Feb) and negative polarity CH HSS influences (26-28 Feb).

Geospace

Sammanfattning av de senaste 24 timmarna
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
Prognos
Active conditions are expected, with periods of G1 (Minor) storms likely, on 26 Feb due to the glancing-blow arrival of a CME from 21 Feb and the onset of negative polarity CH HSS influences. Negative polarity CH HSS influences are expected to continue into 27-28 Feb with quiet and unsettled conditions likely.

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Rymdvädersfakta

Senaste X-utbrottet2024/02/22X6.3
Senaste M-utbrottet2024/02/25M2.0
Senaste geomagnetiska stormen2023/12/18Kp6 (G2)
Fläckfria dagar
Senaste dag utan solfläckar2022/06/08
Månadsvis faktiskt antal solfläckar
januari 2024123 +8.8

I dag i historien*

Solutbrott
12004X1.64
22004M8.24
32014M1.59
42000M1.54
52002M1.37
ApG
1202324G2
2200315
3200016
4199616
5199715
*sedan 1994

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