Viewing archive of lördag, 23 februari 2002
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2002 Feb 23 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 054 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 23 Feb 2002IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 22-2100Z till 23-2100Z Solar activity was low. The largest event of the period
was a C4/Sf at 23/0630Z from developing Region 9841 (S20W33). Region
9830 (S19W49) continues to be the largest and the most active region on
the visible disk, and produced several minor C-class flares. This
region has been in slow decay over the past few days; however, new
flux emergence was noted today and a weak delta configuration still
exists. Minor C-class activity was also observed in Region 9839
(S18W20). New Regions 9844 (N22E33), and 9845 (N15E71) were numbered
today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9830 is capable of producing isolated M-class
flares with the slight chance of a major flare.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 22-2100Z till 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with isolated unsettled
periods early in the period.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels. The minor
geomagnetic disturbance expected today following the 20 Feb CME, has
not yet materialized. It is unlikely that we will see any impact
from this CME.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 24 Feb till 26 Feb
| M-klass | 60% | 55% | 50% |
| X-klass | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 23 Feb 188 Prognoserat 24 Feb-26 Feb 190/185/185 90 Day Mean 23 Feb 223
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 22 Feb 006/005 Förväntat Afr/Ap 23 Feb 008/010 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 24 Feb-26 Feb 010/015-007/008-007/008
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 24 Feb till 26 Feb
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 15% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 35% | 20% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 05% | 05% |
Senaste nytt
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