Viewing archive of fredag, 22 mars 2002

Solaktivitetsrapport

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2002 Mar 22 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 081 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 22 Mar 2002

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 21-2100Z till 22-2100Z

Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region 9866 (S10W96) produced a long-duration M1 X-ray flare at 22/1114 UTC as it crossed the west limb. The flare was associated with a halo CME and a proton event at greater than 10 MeV. Region 9866 was in a slow decay phase during the last few days of its passage. Region 9878 (N08E54) produced a C8 X-ray flare at 22/0618 UTC. Minor growth may have occurred in this region. Region 9871 (S20W47) retained minor magnetic complexity near its leader spots, but was relatively stable. New Regions 9881 (S05W08) and 9882 (N15E74) were numbered.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. There is a fair chance for an isolated, low-level M-class flare during the period.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 21-2100Z till 22-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. A greater than 10 MeV proton event began at geo-synchronous orbit at 22/2020 UTC in the wake of today's long-duration M1 flare. The event was in progress and slowly increasing at the close of the period with a reading of 10.5 pfu at 22/2100 UTC.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during most of the period. However, there will be a chance for brief active levels on 25 March in response to today's CME. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to end early on 23 March.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 23 Mar till 25 Mar
M-klass40%40%40%
X-klass05%05%05%
Proton99%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       22 Mar 172
  Prognoserat   23 Mar-25 Mar  170/165/165
  90 Day Mean        22 Mar 212
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 21 Mar  005/008
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 22 Mar  008/008
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 23 Mar-25 Mar  010/010-010/012-010/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 23 Mar till 25 Mar
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt25%25%25%
Små stormförhållanden10%10%10%
Svåra stormförhållanden05%05%05%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt30%30%30%
Små stormförhållanden15%15%15%
Svåra stormförhållanden05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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