Viewing archive of torsdag, 18 april 2002


Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2002 Apr 18 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 108 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 18 Apr 2002

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 17-2100Z till 18-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Only C-class flares occurred over the past 24 hours. Some of these flares did not have an obvious source on the visible disk and may have originated from beyond the limb. Region 9906 (S14W55) remains large and complex but has shown some sunspot decay and magnetic simplification. New Regions 9911 (S13E23) and 9912 (N11E28) were numbered.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be moderate. M-class activity is expected in Region 9906. A major flare in this region remains a possibility.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 17-2100Z till 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to severe storm levels in response to the CME that impacted the Earth early yesterday. ACE solar wind information suggests that this CME has passed. The geomagnetic field is currently at active levels. Yesterday's greater than 10 MeV proton event has ended: start 17/1530 UTC, maximum flux (24 pfu) 17/1540 UTC, and end 18/0035 UTC.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels through the end of 18 April UTC. Another CME is expected to impact the Earth early on 19 April UTC from an LDE/CME that occurred on 17 April. Minor to major storm conditions are possible for the 24-48 hours following this CME's arrival. Geomagnetic activity is expected to decline to unsettled to active levels by the end of the 3-day forecast period. Another greater than 10 MeV proton event is possible if Region 9906 generates a major flare.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 19 Apr till 21 Apr
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       18 Apr 188
  Prognoserat   19 Apr-21 Apr  180/175/170
  90 Day Mean        18 Apr 201
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 17 Apr  027/041
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 18 Apr  045/050
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 19 Apr-21 Apr  040/040-030/050-012/020
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 19 Apr till 21 Apr
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Små stormförhållanden30%20%10%
Svåra stormförhållanden20%10%05%
B. Höga breddgrader
Små stormförhållanden40%30%20%
Svåra stormförhållanden25%15%05%

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