Viewing archive of onsdag, 17 april 2002

Solaktivitetsrapport

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2002 Apr 17 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 107 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 17 Apr 2002

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 16-2100Z till 17-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 9906 (S14W41) produced a long-duration M2/2n flare at 17/0824 UTC. This flare was associated with a 3000 sfu radio burst at 2695 MHz, Type II/IV radio sweeps, and an Earth-directed "halo" CME visible in LASCO images. The region appears to have retained its size and complexity following the flare. Eruptive limb activity (EPL, BSL, and flare) in the vicinity of Region 9905 (S15W90) occurred during and after the LDE event in 9906.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be moderate. Additional M-class flares, possibly including a major flare, are expected in Region 9906.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 16-2100Z till 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storm levels. A shock was observed at the NASA ACE spacecraft at 17/1022 UTC and was followed by an SI at ground magnetometers at 17/1109 UTC (57 nT at Boulder). This shock is believed to be associated with the LDE M1/CME which occurred on 15 April. A greater than 10 MeV proton event began at 17/1530 UTC. The maximum flux observed so far was 24 pfu at 17/1540 UTC. This event is believed to be associated with the LDE M2 discussed in Part IA.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to minor storm levels as the current disturbance recovers over the next 24 hours. Another disturbance at minor to major storm levels is expected to begin on 19 April in response to the LDE M2/CME which occurred on 17 April. The greater than 10 MeV proton event currently in progress is expected to end within the next 24 hours.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 18 Apr till 20 Apr
M-klass75%60%50%
X-klass10%10%05%
Proton10%10%05%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       17 Apr 194
  Prognoserat   18 Apr-20 Apr  190/185/180
  90 Day Mean        17 Apr 201
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 16 Apr  005/010
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 17 Apr  035/055
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 18 Apr-20 Apr  020/020-040/040-020/030
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 18 Apr till 20 Apr
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt50%50%50%
Små stormförhållanden20%30%20%
Svåra stormförhållanden10%20%10%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt60%20%60%
Små stormförhållanden25%50%25%
Svåra stormförhållanden15%30%15%

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