Viewing archive of onsdag, 20 mars 2002
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2002 Mar 20 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 079 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 20 Mar 2002IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 19-2100Z till 20-2100Z Solar activity was low. A long-duration C4 flare began
at 1544 UTC and lasted until 1919 UTC. The corresponding source on
the disk was not entirely certain but it seemed most likely to be
correlated to activity observed in Region 9866 (S08W73). Additional
C-class subflares occurred during the day, with many of these coming
from Region 9875. Region 9875 showed steady growth during the past
24 hours. Three new region were assigned today: 9876 (S16E65), 9877
(N18W29), and 9878 (N08E75).
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate during the next three days.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 19-2100Z till 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet until 1329 UTC when a sudden impulse
(SI) occurred. Since then the geomagnetic field has ranged from
quiet to active levels. The SI was caused by an interplanetary shock
which was seen at the ACE spacecraft at 1307 UTC. The disturbance is
most likely the result of the halo CME was observed in LASCO C2 at
18/0254 UTC. The shock also pushed the greater than 10 MeV proton
fluxes up to about 19 PFU at 1525 UTC. The proton event fluxes
dropped below event level at 1820 UTC.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled for the next three days. There is a
chance for some isolated active levels on the second day as a
possible response to yesterday's partial halo CME.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 21 Mar till 23 Mar
| M-klass | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| X-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 20 Mar 188 Prognoserat 21 Mar-23 Mar 175/170/165 90 Day Mean 20 Mar 213
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 19 Mar 015/017 Förväntat Afr/Ap 20 Mar 010/010 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 21 Mar-23 Mar 010/010-015/015-010/008
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 21 Mar till 23 Mar
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 35% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 35% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 15% | 10% |
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