Affichage des archives de vendredi, 16 mars 2012
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2012 Mar 16 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 076 publié à 2200Z le 16 Mar 2012IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 15-2100Z au 16-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1432 (N14W25) produced
three C1/Sf flares during the period. This region decreased in area
and spot count, ending the day as a Eso type group with a beta-gamma
configuration. New Region 1436 (S12E62), a simple Axx type group,
was numbered today. SDO/AIA 171 imagery showed a filament erupted
from the northwest limb around 18Z.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for another M-class flare.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 15-2100Z au 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to active levels as
effects from yesterdays CME impact began to wane. Solar wind speed
at the ACE spacecraft remained high, averaging about 660 km/s
through the period while Bz ranged from +5 to -5 nT. Data suggests
we may already be under the influence of a coronal hole high speed
stream. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to begin at unsettled to active levels with minor to major
storm periods at high latitudes for Day 1 (17 Mar). Days 2 and 3
(18-19 Mar) will see a return to predominantly active levels with
minor storm periods possible as an earth-directed CME from 15 Mar
arrives mid to late on the 18th. A glancing blow from a 14 Mar CME
is expected to precede the CME by about 12 hours. Major to severe
storm levels will be possible at high latitudes. The geomagnetic
field should return to active to unsettled levels late on Day 3 (19
Mar) as effects begin to wane.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 17 Mar au 19 Mar
| Classe M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Classe X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 16 Mar 099 Prévisionnel 17 Mar-19 Mar 105/105/105 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 16 Mar 124
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 15 Mar 024/038 Estimé Afr/Ap 16 Mar 014/019 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 17 Mar-19 Mar 013/015-018/025-015/018
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 17 Mar au 19 Mar
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 15% | 40% | 30% |
| Tempête mineure | 05% | 20% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tempête mineure | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 20% | 25% | 15% |
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